It is not true, as some have suggested, that Ethiopia agreed to significant concessions in order for the United States to delist and remove its Human Rights Violation designation depicting Ethiopia as a country where large-scale human rights violations occur.
At this stage, the United States needs Ethiopia more than Ethiopia needs the US. On the political front, Ethiopia has previously faced intense pressure not only from the US and Western colonialists but also from Egypt.
This involved the use of blackmail through Western propaganda machinery, threats of military invasion using AFRICOM, a United States military outfit designed to enforce US colonial policies in Africa, and the use of the UN as a camouflaged Western tool to give rebels in the northern part of the country enough leverage to overthrow the government in Addis Ababa.
By sticking to the African Union, despite doubts, Ethiopia was able to convince the region to act as a protective barrier against Western US-led hegemony and threats. The Eastern African region was successfully mobilized to the extent that when the US arrived trying to persuade regional states to abandon Ethiopia, the best it received was a cold shoulder and a total rejection of its abusive and demeaning policies.
Having gone through this and having created a stronger bond with its African brothers, who responded positively not only in East Africa but also in West Africa, where the African Union was led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, I doubt Ethiopia would want to jeopardize these great achievements for Western tokenism that have not been forthcoming.
On the economic front, the United States threw Ethiopia out of the AGOA program, and of course, Ethiopia would want to get back in. But let’s look at the bigger picture. According to The Africa Report, “Ethiopia has long been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, which supports an estimated 56,000 jobs in the country, mostly in the apparel sector. Ethiopia was the fifth-largest beneficiary of the AGOA program in 2020, with $237 million worth of exports to the US,” for an economy with a total GDP of US$120 billion.
I won’t argue that this is an unreasonable number of jobs for Ethiopia, but it is not significant enough to jeopardize the security, sovereignty, and history of a nation with a GDP of $120 billion. Upon closer examination, we find that the exports of $237 million to the US are not actually being done by Ethiopian companies, but by US companies like H&M, who came to take advantage of cheaper labor costs.
After subtracting the starvation wages, the figure would dwindle to below $100 million. Of the annual $1.3 billion trade between Ethiopia and the United States, the oversized benefit goes to the United States for the supply of Boeing aircraft and aircraft spare parts.
Geopolitically, Russia and China are strong partners with Ethiopia, as evidenced by the first visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi immediately after his appointment, having formerly been the Chinese ambassador to the US. His visit is indicative of the importance China attaches to Ethiopia, not only in terms of $2.8 billion in trade and assistance with industrial parks but also due to Addis Ababa being the administrative capital of the African Union, symbolized by the presence of its headquarters.
In addition to China, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov chose Ethiopia as one of the five countries he visited, along with Uganda, Congo Brazzaville, Kenya, and Egypt. While trade between Russia and Ethiopia is not substantial, there is potential for technological transfer if the government in Addis Ababa makes strategic moves. This includes knowledge in aircraft manufacturing, automobiles, machinery, and shipbuilding, among others.
What Ethiopia ought to do is use this competition as a catalyst to skill the local population and establish full-scale industries in high-value manufacturing. American technology should be used as a means for Ethiopia to position itself as an apparel manufacturing hub for the African continent, producing clothes and shoes.
Maximum effort should be put into marketing these products across the African continent, with the Ethiopian diplomatic missions taking the lead. Trade personnel should be attached to all Ethiopian embassies, with a focus on Africa first, encompassing the entire continent.
Ethiopian Airlines should be expanded, and the country should become a hub for training pilots in Africa, as well as for aircraft manufacturing, starting with light aircraft of up to 90 passengers. By working with China and Russia, Ethiopia should set up these industries with the federal government driving the effort.
With the aforementioned factors clearly mentioned, it would be unthinkable for Ethiopia to give in to US demands. If anything, it is the United States that faces a lot of rejection across the globe and is thus looking for partners, as countries worldwide, including its close allies like India, continue to reject its hegemony. The US and Western colonial countries are isolated on the global stage, and I argue that this is the reason they are reaching out to Ethiopia.
The total ideological defeat was a disgrace, and Secretary of State Blinken’s visit didn’t produce anything constructive, yet Boeing is the major supplier to Ethiopian Airlines. This is a benefit the US wouldn’t want to jeopardize, especially considering that the Chinese aircraft manufacturer COMAC launched its first narrow-body aircraft, the C919, into service—an event I believe was closely monitored in Addis Ababa.
So, would Ethiopia still concede anything significant while in such a position of tremendous strength? I highly doubt it. Instead, Ethiopia should wisely accelerate economic reforms with maximum protection for strategic sectors like aviation, or even work with the aggressively independent neighboring country, Eritrea, to establish an African shipping line and shipbuilding industry. This would cement Ethiopia as the undisputed logistics hub of the continent, in addition to being the aviation and administrative capital of Africa.
