A lot has been said by different parties in Africa and across the world about the possibility of a war in the Horn of Africa (HOA) due to the urgency with which the Prime minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed has attempted to address what he sees as a challenge to the rapid development of his country Ethiopia, namely, its lack of access to a port leading to the Red Sea that has made the country one of the biggest Land Locked countries in Africa and the World.
Ironically, talk of controversy and predictions of imminent war has been mostly drummed up by those far away from Africa. The ones involved directly like Ethiopia and especially Eritrea have said very little to nothing. If anything, Prime Minister Abiy clarified his statement, emphasizing peaceful means of gaining access to a Red Sea port.
As Africans it is important, that we look at this situation from a 360-degree perspective before we fall into a trap of external propaganda that may be driven by sinister agendas. It is not to mean the impossibility of Ethiopia to wage a war, no. We can never reach that level of certainty, but we need to weigh the currently available evidence and actions of the antagonist and then come to a reasonable conclusion.
Did PM Abiy insinuate War?
The P.M Abiy Ahmed has vehemently denied any such desire to wage a war, yet there have been a lot of war drums being beaten especially in the Western media and some of the regional citizens of Africa, some who have called the P.M Abiy a mad man. Some analysts in the West have called the P.M Abiy “Mr. Abiy has gained a reputation for unpredictability. That’s the case for both domestic and foreign affairs.”
Let’s not forget that Western intellectuals and analysts are an extension of the imperialist regimes and mostly breathe its sentiments except a tiny almost invisible few. In the next few paragraphs as an African, I will attempt to argue why I don’t see a cause for war between Ethiopia with anyone in the region as is being largely exaggerated.
The P.M may have overplayed his hand with the exclusion of Amhara and Eritrea in the African Union-led negotiation for peace with TPLF in South Africa yet their contribution to defeating the TPLF and the West was decisive but, this is an issue he may still have time to correct since he has been playing his cards well ever since the emergence of this crisis in the Tigray region which has put a lot of stress on the country’s economy.
It is indeed possible that there may be some friction between Ethiopia and Eritrea but not to the extent that is being exaggerated in the Western media to almost hysterical proportions. This has become even more difficult to ascertain since Eritrea hasn’t said much apart from sending cautious warnings and to some extent dismissive short statements.
One therefore wonders, where are these media and Western politicians getting their information to over-emphasise and exaggerate statements made by the Prime Minister? And what could be the intentions of these foreigners who live oceans and thousands of kilometers away from the Horn of Africa?
Why West is critical of PM Abiy
Looking at the cards that P.M Abiy has been playing, it is not difficult to see why Western analysts have called him unpredictable.
From the way he Mobilised the East African Region, the Horn of Africa (HOA) and having had Eritrea fight on Ethiopia’s Side against the TPLF rebellion, mobilizing the African continent and opinion, to the way he amplified the narrative of African Solutions to African problems and energized the African Union to lead the negotiations while blocking off the United States and Europeans and his pushing Ethiopia towards the finishing line of BRICS membership.
If what he is doing is looked at from all directions it is difficult to conclude that the man is not intelligent, not forgetting that he was able to spy on the United States during the Tigray rebellion.
These are the cards PM Abiy has played well and they have indeed helped him strengthen Ethiopia’s position in the region, on the Continent, and the international stage, they have improved Ethiopia’s reputation as a formidable player who can solve a lot of her problems and defend herself from imperialism’s compromise of her sovereignty. This explains to a large extent why Ethiopia was accepted into the BRICS while Egypt may have been accepted based on nothing else but its strategic location and proximity to the Suez Canal, a major trade channel.
Coming to the United States, it was isolated from the region when the whole region was mobilized by Ethiopia to support her cause against the rebellion, this has left the US with no credibility and this is why it can be argued that the US has no major leverage against Ethiopia apart from access to World bank, IMF and Boeing Aircraft Spare Parts since Ethiopian Airlines operates a large fleet of over 145 aircraft many of which are Boeing from the United States.
While it is possible to interfere with World Bank and IMF funding, it is unlikely that Boeing Aircraft can be used as leverage against Ethiopia because there is a rising tide of alternative aircraft like Sukhoi Superjet from Russia and the New COMAC C919 from China to which the Americans have already panicked. If Ethiopia was forced to Switch, it would not turn back and this would be a major loss to the Americans. We have nevertheless continued to encourage Africa’s biggest Airline (Ethiopia Airlines) to diversify its source of aircraft to offset this possible risk in the future.
Ethiopia not looking to jeopardize Eritrea relations
Having looked at the cards held by both Ethiopia and the US; it is unlikely that Ethiopia would give in to US demands even to being used to destabilize Eritrea. A lot is at Stake in Ethiopia’s case, having normalized relationships with Eritrea at the commencement of his leadership, it is unlikely the PM. Abiy may seek to jeopardize it. Having mobilized the region and sanitized the Ethiopian image in the region including the whole African region, it would be unwise to risk alienation, and isolation, and break the trust that the region has put in Ethiopia.
The alleged comments which many say were made by the prime minister of Ethiopia having to get a Port by force can be interpreted in the context of international and local politics. There are statements leaders make for local consumption when at home and which don’t carry a lot of weight on the international stage and there are those made on the international stage which carry a lot of weight.
We have seen US presidents making all kinds of derogatory remarks about Leaders of other countries and countries themselves, calling powerful leaders dictators, and countries Pariah states but they turn around to still find space for working together.
Recently the First Son of Uganda Gen. David Muhoozi made Military remarks about both Ethiopia and Kenya, these were mainly misunderstandings and not necessarily meant to attack any country. These were settled with talking to each other and this is what is needed between Ethiopia and Eritrea with the African Union.
Contextualizing PM Abiy’s Port remarks
PM Abiy’s remarks may not have intended exactly as is being exaggerated but meant to mobilize local groups at home for them to understand that for Ethiopia to enter the next stage of development, there has got to be a sacrifice of resources for the Country to gain access to the Sea by acquiring a port for its economy.
The West, having been isolated were quick to jump on it and spin in an attempt to insert themselves in the issue as problem solvers so they can gain a foothold having lost it in the region. This could also be an attempt to create a gap between Ethiopia and Eritrea, creating distrust and suspicion so the two can individually be defeated in isolation by denying them the cooperation they enjoyed in the defeat of the defunct western-backed TPLF.
It should be noted that the Prime minister can make mistakes because these leaders don’t know everything even though they know a lot of things, or sometimes they may overlook certain aspects.
PM Abiy should be wary!
Should it be true that the Americans are convincing PM Abiy that they are on his side, he needs to be cautious and remember their record and sinister activities in Iraq. They encouraged and armed Saddam Hussein to attack Iran and Kuwait but later came back to destroy Saddam.
They operate within an elevated degree of Evil to almost satanic proportions. The PM Abiy needs to understand that they could be plotting to overthrow him by encouraging him to attack Eritrea and when they remove him from Power on charges of attacking a UN member state, they would turn their guns on Eritrea and destroy it.
As has been mentioned about the unpredictability of PM Abiy, he may just be playing along to make the Americans feel good by being aware of all these sinister plots therefore it is time to intensify the engagement with President Afwerki and the African Union on this Issue of Ethiopia’s Access to the Red Sea.
NOTE: This article reflects the view of the author, and not of Connect Africa
©Kwame Gonza
kwamegonza@africanacup.org
ACUP (African Continental Unity Party)
www.acupglobal.org
